Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 7.708882 8.859574 10.101408 11.538498 13.152903 14.907600 16.956185
2026-02-01 6.053979 7.613759 9.430048 11.690086 14.414797 17.580994 21.525016
2026-02-08 5.096025 6.798416 8.880921 11.595032 15.015621 19.158258 24.526809
2026-02-15 4.358168 6.134774 8.407035 11.493490 15.538710 20.617949 27.429294
2026-02-22 3.859956 5.693171 8.129789 11.558614 16.204022 22.216145 30.511101
2026-03-01 3.540916 5.446644 8.068297 11.874948 17.184646 24.240222 34.217407
2026-03-08 3.120577 5.003584 7.683072 11.694394 17.449389 25.292827 36.647568
2026-03-15 2.673530 4.468996 7.111507 11.188787 17.202263 25.602655 38.043187
2026-03-22 2.503946 4.334895 7.106826 11.492601 18.110318 27.543781 41.775673
2026-03-29 2.333765 4.180119 7.052672 11.708512 18.888173 29.320899 45.338041
2026-04-05 2.115973 3.924552 6.817731 11.622941 19.197017 30.416368 47.944161
2026-04-12 1.912070 3.670586 6.561628 11.479092 19.396486 31.343754 50.323837
2026-04-19 1.752747 3.481078 6.399835 11.481309 19.833151 32.663491 53.377064
2026-04-26 1.626233 3.337204 6.301924 11.578991 20.423138 34.240566 56.886774
2026-05-03 1.484547 3.149856 6.111824 11.503178 20.717521 35.357603 59.714937
2026-05-10 1.352832 2.967186 5.913658 11.395949 20.946744 36.371806 62.411025
2026-05-17 1.259733 2.849430 5.821016 11.462831 21.465017 37.861546 65.908053
2026-05-24 1.208113 2.809176 5.866479 11.776053 22.416181 40.088664 70.669310
2026-05-31 1.098045 2.637225 5.650377 11.597103 22.497067 40.876241 73.104245
2026-06-07 0.961174 2.393295 5.275272 11.095124 21.973477 40.620640 73.793362
2026-06-14 0.926074 2.366933 5.324721 11.396731 22.906086 42.866979 78.741156
2026-06-21 0.883949 2.320448 5.329625 11.611043 23.686512 44.877216 83.353887
2026-06-28 0.815515 2.206366 5.187022 11.526105 23.905463 45.915119 86.334497